Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos Americas Quarterly invited me to comment on the results of the 17th August 2025 Bolivian elections:
As so often happens, the polls in Bolivia got it wrong. The roughly 15% of undecided voters—and others who either shifted or were not captured by the polls—made quite a splash on election day. Rodrigo Paz, running with the Christian Democratic Party (Partido Demócrata Cristiano, PDC) and polling at less than 10% just a week ago, won the first round with 32%. While somewhat surprising, Paz’s performance reflects a coherent electoral logic.
Bolivians wanted change, and they wanted the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) out. But they also weren’t ready for a complete 180-degree shift. Instead, they rallied behind an underdog. A look at his scarce government program of only 25 pages shows that Paz represents a softer center-left, with a conservative Catholic touch and even a hint of progressive, e.g. when it comes to minority rights. The son of a former president (Jaime Paz Zamora), born in Spain during his father’s exile due to the military dictatorship, Rodrigo Paz combines political pedigree and experience with a calm, approachable demeanor. All this most likely resonated with disenchanted MAS supporters, while those who traditionally never supported MAS—especially in the lowlands around Santa Cruz, a conservative, business-oriented region—opted for Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina.
For the first time in Bolivian history, there will be a second round, pitting Rodrigo Paz against Quiroga. The next president will face a highly fragmented Congress, with around seven parliamentary blocs represented. The vice president, along with the whips of each party, will be crucial in brokering consensus. They will have to work together to pass the reforms needed to pull Bolivia out of its deep crisis.
The MAS, the hegemonic power for two decades, is reduced to a shadow of its former self. What remains of the party lingers around Evo Morales’ former protégé and current Senate president, 36-year-old Andrónico Rodríguez, but now under a different party name. Instead of positioning Andrónico as a successor, Morales undermined him, unwilling to cede the stage.
Samuel Doria Medina, long seen as a frontrunner, conceded gracefully after placing third. In a measured speech, he praised the electoral process and pledged support for Paz. Such behavior—eschewing claims of fraud or conspiracy—is virtually unprecedented in Bolivia’s recent political history.
The runoff campaign will be fiercely contested. Whoever emerges victorious will face an unavoidable reality: the need for pragmatic coalition governance. Without it, efforts to stabilize the economy and restore public trust risk turning into paralysis and conflict.
by Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos, political analyst and advisor
Read the full article here.
